Denver-area homes prices fall 3.1% in Nov.
The Rocky Mountain News Reported today on home prices:
Home prices in the Denver area fell by 3.1 percent in November compared with November 2006, ranking it No. 7 out of 20 top markets in the country, according to a national report released Tuesday.
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices showed the average one-year change in November for all 20 markets was a 7.7 percent loss, more than twice the Denver-area drop.
From October to November, the Denver- area market fell by 2 percent, compared with a 2.1 percent overall drop in the year-ago period. And from September to October, Denver-area prices fell by 1.7 percent, slightly worse than the 1.4 percent for the 20 cities.
Larry McGee, president of the Berkshire Group, said he found the year-over-year report encouraging and consistent with earlier local reports.
While Metrolist data for the entire year showed about a 2 percent drop in prices from 2006 for the Denver area, the S&P/Case Shiller analysis uses a different methodology.
McGee said most experts agree that “because Denver did not have the big run-up in prices, there is no reason to think we are going to have a big ‘run-down,’ ” like other formerly hot markets across the country.
McGee predicted that “sales are going to be OK this year but not fabulous. And that is not all bad.”
The overall national home market is not pretty.
“We reached another grim milestone in the housing market in November,” said Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC.
“Not only did the 10-city composite post another record low in its annual growth rate, but 13 of the 20 metro areas, each with data back to 1991, did the same. Eight of these (metro areas), in addition to the two composites, have had more than 12 consecutive months of falling prices. Fourteen of the 20 (areas), in addition to the two composites, recorded their single largest monthly decline on record in November.”
rebchookj@RockyMountainNews.com or 303-954-5207
The Berkshire Group compiled statistics in graph format. Looking at the actual numbers demonstrates the Denver real estate market isn’t in as bad a shape as one might expect!
A few points to ponder:
The Metro Denver resale housing market was better in 2006 and 2007 than perceived.
- The graphs demonstrate the available resale housing inventory, homes sold, and the absorption rate in the Metro Denver real estate market for 2005, 2006, and 2007.
- The absorption rate is the number of weeks it will take to sell the available inventory at the current rate of sales, with no additional inventory coming to the market.
- The absorption rate improves as the sales increase in the warm months from March to October.
- The market for 2006 and 2007 were very similar with regard to sales, while available inventory was less in 2007 than 2006.
- As home builder inventory decreases, the existing inventory sales will incre4ase and Resale inventory will continue to decrease.
- The number of foreclosed properties did not have a noticeable effect on available inventory, total sales, or the absorption rate in 2006 and 2007.
The graphs were developed from information suppplied by Metrolist, Inc, the Metro Denver MLS provider.
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Kristal, What was your median price this year compared to last?